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Meeting: January 14, 2016: Price Vs Politics: can Russian molecules continue to prosper in the Turkish gas market amidst fluctuating developments in the European hinterlands?

This interactive discussion of the Brussels Energy Club addressed the topic of:

 

Price Vs Politics: can Russian molecules continue to prosper in the Turkish gas market amidst fluctuating developments in the European hinterlands?

 

And took place on Thursday 14 January 2016, 4pm — 7.30 pm @ TUSIAD Avenue des Gaulois, 13, Brussels 1040

 

With special guest discussion opener:

 

Dr Volkan ÖzdemirDr Volkan Özdemir, Director of the Institute of Energy Markets and Policies (EPPEN), based in Ankara, Republic of Turkey

 

 

 

 

 

Background

The topic of this members' meeting of the Brussels Energy Club is, at the present time, one that sells itself. The diplomatic row which has emerged between Russia and Turkey following the shooting down of a Russian military aircraft in the skies above the Turkey-Syria hinterlands last November, appears set to become a game changer for the two countries' relations. For us energy security buffs, this is now shades of the Crimea's return to "Mother Russia" in early 2014, when many of us expected a massive political-military crisis involving Russia and Ukraine to spill over into a crisis of energy security. In terms of the Moscow-Ankara energy partnership, the much heralded Turkish Stream project is now a non-starter, and while we have not seen any disruption to existing Russian gas supplies (to Turkey), Ankara is set to remain "uncomfortably dependant" on Russian gas.

So what developments can we expect to arise out of the Russia-Turkey energy (namely gas) trade, looking ahead? What are Turkey's options for diversifying away from Russian gas as a primary means of powering its industries and growing economy? Can Turkey's diversification projects be justified in an era of tumbling oil prices? While Qatar and Turkey appear to have intensified a dialogue on LNG deliveries, are such deliveries likely given Turkey's shortage of re-gasification infrastructure? How will price continue to govern the Russia-Turkey gas trade, taking into account Gazprom's existing long term contracts with Turkish consumers and the low oil price environment?

These are just some of the questions that remain "on the table" for us to discuss and debate. And in order to stimulate a boisterous discussion about the future prospects for the Turkey-Russia gas trade, and the implications for European and regional stakeholders, we invited Dr Volkan Özdemir, Director of the EPPEN Institute in Ankara, to address this BREC members' meeting on January 14. A lively start to the New Year awaits us!

 

Program January 14, 2016: 16.00 — 19.30:

  • Arrival of members and guests leading into welcome cocktail    
  • Welcoming remarks by Dr Bahadir Kaleagasi, Chairman, Brussels Energy Club,
  • Setting out the debate by Dr Marat Terterov, Executive Director, Brussels Energy Club,
  • Presentation by Dr Volkan Özdemir, Director of the Institute of Energy Markets and Policies (EPPEN), Ankara, Turkey
  • Short presentation by Dr Terterov of his recent paper on Russia-Turkey-Qatar gas relations in light of the post-November 24 crisis  
  • Roundtable discussion with members and guests of the Brussels Energy Club (NB: the Chatham House Rule will apply).
  • Supper buffet reception and networking opportunities with the speaker and Club members will follow the interactive discussions

 

Speaker information

Dr Volkan Özdemir is the Director of the Institute of Energy Markets and Policies (EPPEN), an energy think tank based in Ankara, Republic of Turkey. He is an expert on Russian, Caspian, Turkish energy markets and gas trade, pricing and geopolitics. Dr. Özdemir has a PhD in economics obtained in 2013 from the Moscow State University of International Relations (better known by its Russian acronym of MGIMO). The award of his Doctorate followed in depth research on the interconnected topics of the international gas markets and the economic aspects of the Russian-Turkish gas trade.

Dr. Özdemir has also worked with the Turkish Prime Ministry Under-secretariat for Foreign Trade, Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, as well as with BOTA┼×, the Turkish state pipeline corporation. Dr. Özdemir gives lectures on energy economics, security and diplomacy at different institutions, which are based on his regular publications on international energy matters. He makes frequent appearances at international public meetings on energy and speaks Turkish, Russian and English. Dr. Özdemir is a graduate of the department of International Relations at Middle East Technical University (METU) in Ankara, and further obtained an MA from Uppsala University, Sweden, focusing on energy cooperation and security in the Caspian region. His most recent commentary on the Russia-Turkey gas trade can be found here:

http://www.eppen.org/en/index.php?sayfa=Yorumlar&link=&makale=204

 

Further information

Participation in the interactive discussion at TUSIAD venue will be free of charge for members and guests of the Brussels Energy Club. For more information please contact Martin Minarik on industry@brusselsenergyclub.org and/or Ben McPherson on research@brusselsenergyclub.org, or visit the contacts section of our website.

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